The lottery is a tax on the mathematically challenged
New Jerseyans are up in arms over the revelation that our state lottery continues to sell scratch-off tickets after all the big prizes have been won. There are 79 instant scratch-off games being sold in New Jersey and 14 of them have already given away their top tier prizes.

Anyone with a modicum of mathematical knowledge immediately understands that the odds of winning a big prize from a scratch-off game are infinitessimally small. The state distributes the tickets to tens of thousands of retailers. Most of them won't receive a single winning ticket. So from a practical standpoint, picking a retailer who didn't receive one of the winning tickets means you have absolutely no chance of hitting it big no matter how many tickets you purchase.

Even if you select a retailer with a lucky ticket in his inventory you still have to buy your ticket at exactly the right time. Scratch-off tickets are printed in sheets or rolls and sold sequentially. The rate at which tickets are purchased determines which one will be sold next. If there are 1000 tickets available in the store your theoretical odds of getting the winner are 1/1000. But that's only if you can randomly pick any of the 1000 tickets to purchase. In reality the clerk will tear off the "next" ticket. The predetermined order in which the tickets were printed determines when the "next" ticket is the winner.

And once again, when that winning ticket is sold, purchasing any of the remaining tickets is guaranteed to be a waste of your money.

Given such long odds it makes very little sense to purchase scratch-off lottery tickets. It makes even less sense to be outraged when someone points out the mathematical realities behind the odds. Yet there is no shortage of people crying foul:

Uh, Maria? If your parents paid for your education you might want to ask about seeking a refund.

There are, of course, no shortage of Marias in the world. The lottery will happily continue to take their money. Those of us who understand math will laugh as they pay a voluntary tax on their ignorance.

Posted at 10:17 by Chris   []   | | | Email | del.icio.us | Digg | Stumble It! | Reddit | Link